The Global Insight

Ballot box bumper crop: what do voters want in 2024?

We’re midway through a year in which a record number of people are voting. Much has been made of 2024 as an election year, with a bumper crop of polls taking place across the world. Not all have been or will be free and fair. Not all have produced or will produce surprising results. But in an environment in which democracy is under severe pressure, the polls of 2024 have, so far, delivered a strong message of support for the process.

We have also seen a spike in political violence this election season – demonstrated most dramatically with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump in the US.

Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with Jonathan Wood, our lead global affairs analyst, as they unpack what the 2024 ballot box is telling us and what the health and trajectories of democracies globally means for business.

Our analysts Michael Bongani Reinders, Alexandra Kellert, Aryaman Bhatnagar and Marina Pera bring their regional expertise to the discussion.

For more on the US election, listen to our previous episode US election 2024: superpower at a crossroads.

Find out how we can support your organisation through the 2024 US election.

US election 2024: superpower at a crossroads

The 2024 US election marks a pivotal decision point: what kind of role will the US play in the world? While this may not be the top issue for most American voters, the rest of the world is watching and waiting to see who will be sitting in the Oval Office next year: Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with Jonathan Wood, our lead global affairs analyst, as they discuss the impact of the US election on three key regions: Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. They explore the critical themes businesses need to watch closely, from growing security concerns around NATO to US trade policy with China to the evolving relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia.

Our analysts Alexey Eremenko, Niamh McBurney and Andrew Gilholm, bring their regional expertise to the discussion.

For more on the US election, listen to our Asia in Focus podcast episodes on US-China relations and the election’s impact on Asia and broader markets.

Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

The geopolitics of seabed mining: uncharted waters

The demand for the minerals we extract from the sea will continue to grow. What do businesses need to know about this pioneering space of seabed mining?

Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with in-house experts Gabriel Brasil, Senior Analyst and our global lead on energy transition and critical minerals, and Dr Victoria Mitchell, Analyst and lead on maritime issues, about what governments, businesses and activists are saying and doing as activity around seabed mining steps up.

Find more of our analysis on critical minerals here.

The Ukraine war: how long-term is long-term?

The Ukraine war is receiving less attention now, but the implications continue to reverberate.

The Ukraine war will define a generation's understanding of European identity, the future of Russia's relationship with NATO, US engagement in Europe, and the cohesion of the Western alliance. It will also shape Russia's influence in the Global South and that of its allies, impacting businesses worldwide.

Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with two of Control Risks’ senior experts in geopolitics: Sorana Parvulescu, Partner and head of our geopolitical risk business in EMEA based in Dubai, and Jonathan Wood, a Principal Washington, DC.

Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

Critical minerals, slow business: making sense of the down-cycle

Critical minerals are a hot topic right now, but most people don’t realise how truly critical they are until there is a restriction on their use. Critical minerals drive AI, the cloud, the energy transition – but they also power our phones, keep the lights on, the dishwasher running. The US defines critical minerals as those which serve an essential function in one or more energy technology, and which are at high risk of supply chain disruption. Securing access to them is existential.  

Claudine Fry, Director of Control Risks’ Global Issues team, chats with Stephen Norris, a Partner in Control Risks’ Tokyo office, to discuss the current critical minerals down-cycle, geopolitical dynamics, and how he anticipates regulation and investment in the sector will evolve.

Find out how we can support your organisation.

Contested waters: geopolitics returns to the sea

Just as the shipping industry was recovering from years of pandemic disruption, its vulnerability has been laid bare yet again. This time the extra costs, delays and clogged berths are compounded by destroyers, drones and a higher-octane geopolitical tension. Growing insecurity in the Red Sea is a reminder that geopolitics underpins global trade and can threaten it as easily as it can uphold it.

Join Control Risks Partner Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks' experts Cormac Mc Garry and Arran Kennedy about why businesses need to be paying attention what’s happening in the Red Sea -- and not just to the near-term risk -- and not just to the near-term risk.

 

Lessons from 2023: global business goes back to school

2023 felt like an uneven, transitional year. Global inflation has fallen sharply, and supply chains have recovered without a major economic crisis. But overwhelming geopolitical volatility, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Europe and the Sahel, as well as a looming swathe of elections worldwide haunts any attempt to paint an overly rosy picture. 2023 also saw the emergence of a new multipolar world order as Middle Powers flexed their muscles and leaps in AI supercharged just about everything. Businesses must be ready to monitor and adapt.

What’s next? Join Control Risks Partner, Claudine Fry, for a conversation with Control Risks experts Jonathan Wood, a Principal in our Global Risk Analysis team based in the US, and Andrew Gilholm, a Principal in our Global Risk Analysis team based in South Korea, as they examine the key events and trends from 2023 and what these mean for the year ahead.

For more on what businesses need to watch in 2024, check out RiskMap, Control Risks’ annual forecast of business risks, compiled by Control Risks experts worldwide. With risk ratings and in-depth analysis, RiskMap is your essential guide to mitigating risk and seizing opportunity in the year ahead.  

Find out more about how we can support your business.

Rethinking the ”G” in ESG: governance or geopolitics?

Geopolitical turbulence is shaping trends in ESG regulation and enforcement globally. Indeed, the significant role geopolitics is playing in driving business risk and determining commercial success for companies has prompted some discussion about whether the “G” in ESG should be focused on “geopolitics” rather than “governance”.

Join Claudine Fry as she sits down with Control Risks experts Gabriel Brasil and Shikha Kher to explore how a better understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and ESG is key to proactively managing compliance and taking advantage of emerging, associated opportunities.

Find out more about how we're helping organisations mitigate risk and seize opportunity in the ESG space. 

The Middle East as microcosm: Middle Powers in the Persian Gulf

The Middle East is changing rapidly, with consequences for sport, culture, politics, energy and economics. This is particularly true for the Gulf states. Join Control Risks Partner Claudine Fry for conversation with Control Risks Senior Analyst Niamh McBurney about the evolving power dynamics, global influence and business landscape of the Middle East. 

Visit controlrisks.com to find out how we help businesses mitigate risk and seize opportunity.

Middle powers: a force to watch

In the new world order, middle power countries like Brazil, Turkey, India, and Egypt, are poised to be a significant force. These are countries capable of playing key strategic roles internationally or regionally, with natural resources, demographic advantages or historic links at their disposal. 

Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks experts Gabriel Brasil and Patricia Rodrigues for a conversation about what makes a country a middle powers, what makes them a force on the geopolitical stage, and why understanding them matters for business.

Find out more about how we can support your business.